Prediction Goes To War
Croesus supposedly asked the Oracle what would happen in a war between him and Persia, and the Oracle answered such a conflict would “destroy a great empire”. We all know what happened next. What if...
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Tumblr on MIRI
[Disclaimer: I have done odd jobs for MIRI once or twice several years ago, but I am not currently affiliated with them in any way and do not speak for them.] A recent Tumblr conversation on the...
View ArticleNo Physical Substrate, No Problem
I. Yesterday I posted a link to an article in which Steve Wozniak joins other luminaries like Elon Musk and Bill Gates in warning about the dangers of artificial superintelligence. A commenter replied:...
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AI Researchers On AI Risk
I first became interested in AI risk back around 2007. At the time, most people’s response to the topic was “Haha, come back when anyone believes this besides random Internet crackpots.” Over the next...
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No Time Like The Present For AI Safety Work
I. On the recent post on AI risk, a commenter challenged me to give the short version of the argument for taking it seriously. I said something like: 1. If humanity doesn’t blow itself up, eventually...
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Book Review: Age of Em
[Note: I really liked this book and if I criticize it that’s not meant as an attack but just as what I do with interesting ideas. Note that Robin has offered to debate me about some of this and I’ve...
View ArticleMaybe The Real Superintelligent AI Is Extremely Smart Computers
I. By Ted Chiang, on Buzzfeed: The Real Danger To Civilization Isn’t AI: It’s Runaway Capitalism. Chiang’s science fiction is great and I highly recommend it. This article, not so much. The gist seems...
View ArticleThe Hour I First Believed
[Content note: creepy basilisk-adjacent metaphysics. Reading this may increase God’s ability to blackmail you. Thanks to Buck S for the some of the conversations that inspired this line of thought.]...
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1960: The Year The Singularity Was Cancelled
[Epistemic status: Very speculative, especially Parts 3 and 4. Like many good things, this post is based on a conversation with Paul Christiano; most of the good ideas are his, any errors are mine.] I....
View ArticleDon’t Fear The Simulators
From the New York Times: Are We Living In A Computer Simulation? Let’s Not Find Out. It lists the standard reasons for thinking we might be in a simulation, then brings up some proposals for testing...
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